A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the IPCC. The database infrastructure facilitates making scenario results accessible and reuseable in line with the FAIR guiding principles for open science. Climate change affects the economy via physical risks and transition risks. In this report. IIASA's Energy, Climate, and Environment Program played a key role in providing the transition scenarios, as IIASA is the official host of the Scenario Explorer which is a web-based user interface that shows important data visualizations for NGFS transition scenarios. 17. Huppmann, D. et al. NGFS IIASA Scenario Explorer This web-based user interface provides intuitive visualisations and display of the transition scenarios time series data. Arranged in three parts, you can access each part by clicking on the tabs below. The NGFS climate scenarios were selected in partnership with an academic consortium including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland (UMD) and Climate Analytics (CA). "But they are so much more. The Bank will use its 2021 biennial exploratory scenario (BES) to explore the financial risks posed by climate change. this scenario explorer hosts the ngfs scenarios, which were produced by ngfs workstream 2 in partnership with an academic consortium from the potsdam institute for climate impact research (pik), international institute for applied systems analysis (iiasa), university of maryland (umd), climate analytics (ca), the eidgenössische technische … Summary & aims. . More. "Climate scenarios are a crucial tool in assessing the risks of the future," says Sarah Breeden, Executive Director at the Bank of England and chair of the scenario process within the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Source: IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios Database, REMIND-MagPIE model. The future climate scenarios are based on well-established sources of information. Some Guidance for Use The use of the climate scenario information should take into account the following considerations: 1. Since its founding in 2008 by a joint initiative of IIASA, the Austrian Government, and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the Vienna Energy Forum (VEF) has assembled thinkers and practitioners from all over the world to discuss practical solutions to sustainable development challenges and pave the way for tangible partnerships on the ground. climate scenarios themselves. Figure 3 shows how land cover would shift in a net zero scenario by 2050. SSP no-climate-policy baseline scenarios are shown grey, while various mitigation targets are shown in colour. NGFS SCENARIOS 8 Economic impacts at a glance has been working on climate scenarios with central banks and development banks. IAMDataExplorer The app will load the NGFS scenario by default, but this can be changed at will. Prof. Irene Monasterolo (Vienna Univ. It hosts a set of transition scenario results selected for the Network for . The NGFS partnered with an expert group of climate scientists and economists to design a set of hypothetical scenarios.They provide a common reference point for understanding how climate change (physical risk) and climate policy and technology trends (transition risk) could evolve in different futures. Fonte: IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios Database, modello REMIND. NEW RELEASE, (Version 2.0, December 2018): The new release includes four important updates and extensions of the SSP IAM scenarios: extended reporting of existing SSP scenarios, covering additional new variables, a set of new low SSP-based mitigation scenarios for a radiative forcing target of 1.9 W/m2 were added, some scenarios were updated in . Longer time horizons and long -lived effects. Database Explorer for NGFS/IIASA Database. . Part 1 provides background to the scenarios used by climate scientists. * In the end, only the NZE IEA scenario had available data at the sector level. System (NGFS), a global platform of more than 80 financial authorities, recognized that climate change poses new risks for citizens' investments and savings. Backtesting Expected Shortfall. IIASA at the 6th International Climate Change Adaptation Conference. Assessing the impact of climate risk on the financial system and the economy Developing capabilities Within financial sector Macroprudential 23 Microprudential 18 Within organisation Macroeconomic Others 5 impact 10 . of Economics and Business and Boston Univ.) Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The first round of scenarios was presented to the NGFS in June 2020, with a second round due to be released by the end of this year. In the Orderly scenario, for low physical and transition risks, renewables and nuclear power increase their share in the total energy mix to more than 50% by 2050. Source: IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios Database, REMIND model. This is illustrated in Figure 2. The NGFS Scenario Explorer, in turn, will enable financial specialists to work with scenario data. They. A second one will follow around the turn of the year. Easily use NGFS scenarios in MATLAB. The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) released data and documents today (June 24) to help central banks conduct climate-related scenario analysis and stress-testing. Source: IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios Database, REMIND model. Partners who participated in the first phase of the research included IIASA, the Potsdam Institute, Climate Analytics, the University of Maryland, and ETH Zurich. ### Further information. Source: IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios Database, REMIND model. Bas van Rujiven (IIASA) is a member of the scientific consortium supporting the NGFS with climate scenarios. New NGFS Climate Scenarios & the Green Swan Conference Climate scenarios provide stark reminder as central bank conference kicks off. Financial System (NGFS) were also assessed to expand the analysis of the AFOLU sector. Part 2 describes the development of RCPs, and Part 3 provides a quick reference to many of the key parameters and data . 2 C Bertram, J Hilaire, E Kriegler, T Beck, D Bresch, L Clarke, R Cui, . The scenario data is released under a custom license. This raises many new data and modelling challenges. Source: IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios Database, REMIND model. STORYLINES FOR PIK AND IIASA SCENARIOS USED BY UNEP FI AND NGFS EACH SCENARIO REFLECTS A POTENTIAL FUTURE WITH THE COMPLEX SET OF SOCIAL, POLITICAL, AND ECONOMIC DECISIONS THAT ENTAILS Scenario Model NGFS Category Storyline Current policies (over 3oC) MESSAGE, REMIND, GCAM Hot house world Current climate policies are followed for all regions . 10 7 6 5 3 2 No new climate model simulations or downscaled data sets were produced for use in these reports. https://www.ngfs . The first round of scenarios has now been published. IIASA's Energy, Climate, and Environment Program played a key role in providing the transition scenarios, as IIASA is the official host of the Scenario Explorer which is a web-based user interface that shows important data visualizations for NGFS transition scenarios. The research is conducted by the Potsdam Institute, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Climate Analytics, the University of Maryland, and ETH Zurich in close collaboration with the NGFS. On 24 June, the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) published its first set of climate scenarios to explore the risks from both 'physical' impacts of climate change and the transition to a zero-carbon economy. Carbon prices are weighted global averages. In this session, learn about the tools that MathWorks are making available for: working with data from Integrated Assessment Models (such as the NGFS scenarios), applying climate stress-tests and incorporating temperature alignment goals into investment portfolios. 03 Oct 2021 - 06 Oct 2021. Scenario and variable expansion are often required to produce credible outputs for diverse geog- raphies, sectors and asset types. As a result, in the NGFS scenarios, the orderly versus disorderly character of scenarios is assumed exogenously, independently of the role of the financial system," adds coauthor and IIASA . That won't happen easily - or on its own. End of century warming outcomes shown. Nordhaus economic costs, baseline climate sensitivity 40179 43831 47484 51136 54789 58441 62094 65746 69399 73051 0-0.13015618600000001-0.428990753-0.92280955600000003-1.616817556-2.494158037-3.5228392340000001-4.6645069320000001-5.8814071800000001-7.1405289190000003 Burke-Hsiang-Miguel costs, baseline climate sensitivity 40179 43831 47484 . they can be mapped to the ngfs scenarios in the following way: the orderly and disorderly 1.5°c and 2°c scenarios are in the range of the low temperature scenario (representative concentration pathway rcp2.6), whereas the current policies scenario is close to the high temperature scenario (rcp 6.0) by the end of the century (see section … Trillion USD Current policies Net Zero 2050 (1.5°C) 0 10 30 20 40 50 Fossil electricity Fossil extraction Green electricity and storage Nuclear GDP impacts reltative to prior trend Source: IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios Database, NiGEM based on REMIND. IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios database, REMIND model; End of century warming outcomes shown. Scenario analysis for a climate stress test includes four main steps—scenario selection, variable selection, modelling for risk quantification,and using the outputs for risk assessment. Forests would go from a land cover of 3988 million acres in 2020 to 4152 in 2050, energy crops from 7.7 million acres to 178, pastures from 3198 to 3120 million acres and food . In June 2020, the Network for Greening the Financial Sector (NGFS), a body of global banking regulators and observers, published a set of "reference" scenarios (NGFS 2020). The scenario ensemble is protected by EU Sui generis database rights. 'GHGs' = greenhouse gases. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute … , 2021 Carbon dioxide emissions Alternate 1.5°C Scenarios - 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2020 2030 2040 2050 Gt CO 2 / year Orderly (2˚C with CDR) 1.5˚ Cwith DR 1.5˚C with limited CDR. NGFS scenario explorer (hosted by IIASA) NGFS Presentation and Documentation First products (June 2020) Scenario analysis risks and opportunities Research shaping and facilitating research agenda Targets alignment of strategy, policy and/or portfolios Applications Next release (7thJune 2021) . Central Banks Notes Get the latest insights on how Central Banks use MATLAB Create a Connection Programatically, the connection to the IIASA database can be created with a default selected scenario or completely empty. The CD-LINKS project was exploring the complex interplay between climate action and development, while simultaneously taking both global and national perspectives and thereby informing the design of complementary climate-development policies. NGFS Climate Scenario Database: Technical Documentation V2. NGFS SCENARIOS 8 Economic impacts at a glance The NGFS climate scenarios were produced in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA) and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ). The CD-LINKS consortium . https://doi.org . Source: IIASA NGFS Climate Scenarios Database, REMIND model. It was thrilling to see that climate change scenarios proved their worth for financial regulators as they have done before for climate policymakers," Kriegler concludes. Generating sustainable income has become a challenging concept. It turns out that the only previous material reductions in global emissions have been by-products of disasters like Covid, the financial crisis of 2008-9, World War 2, or the Great Depression (Chart 1 . Members of the green central bank network - NGFS - had a busy first week of June organising the Green Swan conference 2-4th June and publishing the revised climate scenarios on 7th June. The pathways describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to . Bold lines indicate the subset of scenarios chosen as a focus for running CMIP6 climate model simulations. Forming part of the NGFS Climate Scenarios Phase II, under sub-group 1, this project covers the expansion of the number of reported macro-economic variables (macro output from scenarios) on the IIASA database through an extension of current modelling framework by the inclusion of NiGEM withing the modelling framework. In addition to orderly transition scenarios similar to those explored by the banks in Phase I, Because when we better understand the risks of tomorrow, we take more informed . 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